25 June 2025 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Pauses as Markets Digest Ceasefire Gains and Await Fed Signals

Gary Hall

and

Steven Hansen

Jun 25, 2025

The Dow closed down 107 point or 0.25%,
NASDAQ closed up 61 points or 0.31%,
S&P 500 closed down 0.02 points or 0.00%,
Gold $3,347 up $13.50 or 0.40%,
WTI crude oil settled at $65 up $0.80 or 1.24%,
10-year U.S. Treasury 4.294 up 0.001 points or 0.023%,
USD index 97.75 down $0.12 or 0.12%,
Bitcoin $107,756 up $1,918 or 1.78%, (24 Hours),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights – Market Summary

Wall Street’s main indexes delivered a mixed performance on Wednesday, following a robust two-day rally fueled by easing tensions in the Middle East and anticipation of further comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. This comes after all three major indexes surged more than 1% on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 now less than 1% away from its all-time high.

The primary catalyst for the recent market strength and today’s cautious trading has been the de-escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, with both sides signaling an end to their aerial war and a fragile ceasefire taking hold. This geopolitical relief led to a sharp drop in oil prices—West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 6%—boosting investor sentiment and risk appetite. Lower oil prices are seen as a positive for inflation, keeping hopes alive for potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later in the year.

Investors are also closely monitoring Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s ongoing congressional testimony for hints about future monetary policy. Powell has maintained a cautious stance, noting that unexpectedly low inflation or labor market weakness could prompt rate cuts, but he remains wary of tariff-related inflationary pressures

David L. Bahnsen of The Bahnsen Group in their Dividend Cafe yesterday stated:

The market rally today should not be taken as a sign that “this was so obvious markets would rally once…” because it wasn’t. What it should be taken as is yet another reminder of the easiest principle in investing to validate:
Those who believe they can time their way around current events as an investment strategy get their faces ripped off.
The people who knew what markets would do around various Trump/trade/tariff announcements were wrong. For that matter, those who claimed to know what the President, himself, would do were wrong. Those who knew what the U.S. would do in Iran were wrong. Those who knew how Iran would respond were wrong. Those who knew what markets would do in response were wrong. And all of this is just as true if I change out any of the variables above about trade or tariffs or Iran with any other news event you want. The whack-a-mole of predicting current events is the most futile thing I have ever seen, matched only by the futility of predicting market response to current events. And because this process is almost always accompanied by a substantial (unwarranted) self-confidence, undoing it is even harder once it has worked against you because, well, ego and pride are a real part of the human condition.
Do not be shocked that markets are up big and oil down big just after the U.S. bombed Iran’s nuclear ambitions into oblivion. Be shocked that there are still some who are perpetually shocked, and with it, undermining their own financial success.

Read the June 2025 Economic Forecast: Recession Winds - Is the Glass Half Empty or Half Full

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its Small Business and Technology Survey, which examines how small businesses with at least one employee adopt technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), new or improved software and equipment, and websites. The survey reveals that while small businesses are innovative, many struggle to integrate new technologies, potentially hindering their growth and competitiveness. Key findings include that 24% of small employers use AI tools, with adoption varying by firm size (21% for 1-9 employees, 48% for 50+ employees), and 63% anticipate AI becoming important in their industry within five years, primarily for communications (29%) and marketing (27%). Additionally, 57% of small employers introduced new or significantly improved technologies in the past two years, with 65% reporting it helps them stay competitive. Website usage is high, with 82% of small businesses having a website, though only 19% accept payments online. The report underscores the challenges and opportunities small businesses face in leveraging technology to enhance productivity and market position.

Sales of new single-family houses in May 2025 were down 6.3% year-over-year (YoY). The estimate of new houses for sale was up 8.1% YoY. This represents a supply of 9.8 months at the current sales rate which is up 15.3% YoY. The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2025 was $426,600. This is up 3.0% YoY. The backlog of unsold houses is slowing residential construction and likewise is slowing residential construction’s contribution to the economy.

Infographic of the Day from Visual Capitalist:

A map showing the most and least insured cities in the U.S.

Statista Graphic of the Day:

Infographic: Majority of Millionaires Supports Wealth Tax | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

The headlines we are reading:

Weather Outlook for the United States and the World – Continuously Updated

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and three- and six-day World weather outlooks, which can be very useful for travelers and understanding World News Events. We also provide continual coverage of world tropical events and special coverage for such events and other special weather situations impacting or likely to impact the United States. To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings, click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code in the upper left corner.

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The Great Bond Scam: Wall Street's Biggest Myth Exposed

Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

There’s a ridiculous and pervasive notion in finance that US Treasuries are “risk free.”

People repeat it without thinking. Financial institutions build portfolios around it. And for decades, the world has blindly accepted this trope as gospel.

As a result, bonds—especially US Treasuries—became the de facto savings account for many in the post-1971 fiat currency era. Widely regarded as a safe, conservative place to park capital, US Treasuries are the foundation of the massive global bond market.

The global bond market is now estimated to be worth more than $300 trillion. Why? Because the masses were told this was the smart, safe thing to do.

Compare that to all the gold ever mined in the world: worth about $22 trillion. That’s a mere 7% of the global bond market.

"Gold Is Money Good" - Ed Dowd Warns "Deflationary Scare" Will Prompt Fed Panic

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Former Wall Street money manager and financial analyst Ed Dowd of PhinanceTechnologies.com has been forecasting “Danger of Deep Worldwide Recession in 2025.” It looks like his thesis is turning out correct.

He predicted interest rates would be declining. They did. And inflation has been going down right along with the economy as illegal immigration was being stopped and deportations ramped up. Dowd says:

“Our friend Joe Biden spent anywhere between $500 billion to $2 trillion to bring these people in and set them up. Now, that’s all going the wrong way. Trump has shut down the border crossings, and as deportations heat up, that will only add to the problem. There will be a lot of supply, and prices have already started coming down in certain regions, and that is going to accelerate.

Inflat ...

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According to Reuters on Wednesday, "Russian forces have taken control of the settlement of Yalta in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region, the state-run RIA news agency reported on Wednesday citing the Russian Defense Ministry."

Via Al Jazeera

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IEA Calls for More Investment in Ensuring Universal Energy Access

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