17 July 2025 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: PepsiCo & United Airlines Spark Rally as "Strong" Retail Numbers Deceive Investors

Gary Hall

and

Steven Hansen

Jul 17, 2025

The Dow closed up 230 points or 0.52%,
NASDAQ closed up 154 points or 0.74%, (New Historic high 20,912, Closed at 20,884)
S&P 500 closed up 34 points or 0.54%, (New Historic high 6,305, Closed at 6,297)
Gold $3,346 down $13.2 or 0.39%,
WTI crude oil settled at $68 up $1.25 or 1.88%,
10-year U.S. Treasury 4.457 up 0.002 points or 0.045%,
USD index 98.64 up $0.24 or 0.25%,
Bitcoin $118,918 down $155 or 0.13%, (24 Hours),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights – Market Summary

On July 17, 2025, U.S. stock markets were buoyed by notable corporate earnings and what they mistakenly believed was strong economic data. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 reached record highs and pushed the Dow Jones into positive territory. Investor sentiment was lifted by robust retail sales figures for June 2025 (which were poor - see our analysis below), as well as upbeat earnings from United Airlines and PepsiCo. PepsiCo rallied nearly 7% on demand for healthier beverages, while United Airlines surged on improved travel demand. Rumors that President Trump was considering removing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a claim Trump later denied, helped stabilize markets. The outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts remains cautious as inflation stays slightly above the 2% target. Technology and airline stocks led market gains, propelled by positive results from semiconductor firms like TSMC and anticipation of Netflix’s upcoming earnings. Does the inflation-adjusted retail sales graph below look like strong growth?

Read the July 2025 Economic Forecast: Progress on a Rough Path

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Import prices fell 0.2% year-over-year (YoY in June 2025. Those were the largest annual decreases since the index fell 0.9% for the year ended February 2024. If fuel is ignored in import prices, the index was down 1.2% YoY (down from 1.4% the previous month). Meanwhile, export prices rose 2.8% YoY. Surprisingly, there is little evidence of a price impact yet from the tariff wars.

U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2025 were up 3.7% YoY. This was up from 3.2% YoY last month. Before one thinks retail sales are going gangbusters - the inflation-adjusted growth was up 1.2% YoY - up from last month’s 0.9% YoY. Most of the categories of retail sales were little changed, with food services, non-store retailers, and auto sales driving the increase.

The July 2025 Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey indicated an expansion in manufacturing activity, with the general activity index rising to a positive 15.9, its highest since February, driven by increases in new orders (up 16 points to 18.4) and shipments (up to 23.7). Employment also improved as the employment index turned positive, reflecting job growth. Could it be that hard data will confirm manufacturing is improving.

Current and Future General Activity Indexes

In the week ending July 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 229,500, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 235,500 to 235,750.

In May 2025, Cotality's Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI) reported a year-over-year rent increase of 3.1%, up from 3% in May 2024, marking the fourth consecutive month of accelerating annual rent growth and aligning with pre-pandemic growth rates of 3.4%. Molly Boesel, Cotality's senior principal economist, noted that this sustained momentum in the rental market contrasts with slowing home price growth, as high home prices and interest rates push would-be buyers to remain renters, boosting demand. Monthly gains in the SFRI have consistently exceeded seasonal norms in 2025, indicating that annual rent growth may surpass 3% for the year. High-end properties saw a 3.8% year-over-year rent increase, up from 3% in May 2024, while low-end properties experienced a 2.3% increase, down from 2.9% the previous year.

Infographic of the Day from Visual Capitalist:

Long-form infographic making the case for active ETFs due to explosive growth, alpha potential, diverse offerings, and cost efficiency for New York Life Investments.

Statista Graphic of the Day:

Infographic: Hot Temperatures Fuel AC Sales in India | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

The headlines we are reading:

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Yield Curve Control? Why Not...

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

There is a lot of chatter surrounding the Federal Reserve. The FOMC, etc. What the President will or will not do. What can be “successfully” done or not. Will Powell be fired?

Today, Kevin Warsh is floating the idea of better aligning the Fed and Treasury, as has been the case in the past (so I’m told).

Warsh: "we need another Treasury-Fed accord" The last time we had such an accord (in 1951), there was Yield Curve Control in the US. Clear what's coming.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 17, 2025

Most of the analysis about what may happen tends to fall along the lines of:

Probably cannot “fire” Powell anyways. Even if Powell is “fired” it is a committee and the committee won’t do anything drastic. The front end might rally a bit, but “we” will lose control over the long end.

Why not think more outside the box? There are a few things we know:

The President thinks rates are too high. The President (and Bessent) are focused on the 10-year and believe that is also too high. The President has no problem (at least on tariffs) dictating s ...

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