16 July 2025 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Inflation Meets Trade Storm as Trump Unveils Sweeping Trade Hikes

Gary Hall

and

Steven Hansen

Jul 16, 2025

The Dow closed up 231 points or 0.53%,
NASDAQ closed up 53 points or 0.25%,
S&P 500 closed up 20 points or 0.32%,
Gold $3,355 up $18.4 or 0.55%,
WTI crude oil settled at $67 up $0.05 or 0.08%,
10-year U.S. Treasury 4.453 down 0.036 points or 0.802%,
USD index 98.32 down $0.31 or 0.31%,
Bitcoin $119,340 up $2,804 or 2.35%, (24 Hours),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights – Market Summary

On July 16, 2025, stock markets advanced amid a flurry of economic and political developments. Early optimism from a slightly better-than-expected inflation report was offset by concerns surrounding President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on multiple countries, notably a 35% tariff on Canada and broad increases to 15–20% for nations lacking trade agreements, effective August 1. U.S. companies reported that tariffs were starting to inflate costs for goods like toys and apparel. Bond yields climbed as investors worried about more inflation from tariffs, further supporting a stronger dollar.

Read the June 2025 Economic Forecast: Recession Winds - Is the Glass Half Empty or Half Full

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

By studying the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, you see a microcosm of global trade dynamics—supply and demand, geopolitical influences, and logistical challenges—all in one place. they are the largest port complex in the United States and a major gateway for international commerce, particularly with Asia. Together, these ports handle about 40% of U.S. containerized imports and 25% of exports. And their hard data is available weeks before the US Census produces national data. In June 2025, imports were down 4% year-over-year (YoY) whilst exports were down 3% YoY. This data suggests some impact from the tariff wars - but far less than the media would have you believe. Note that lower imports improves GDP.

The Producer Price Index for final demand in June 2025 rose 2.3% YoY - down from 2.8% the previous month. Prices for final demand less food and energy were up 2.6% - down from 3.2% the previous month. This is a significant decline in inflation pressures, considering that the energy component advanced 0.6% this month. This is the first sign that inflation MAY be moderating - but one month of data is not a trend.

Industrial Production (IP) is showing signs of life with June 2025 up 0.7% YoY (up insignificantly from the previous month) with components manufacturing up 1.0% YoY (up from 0.8% the previous month); mining up 1.6% YoY (down from 2.7% the previous month); and utilities down 0.8% YoY (up from -1.8% YoY the previous month). Capacity utilization moved up to 77.6 percent, a rate that is 2.0 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average. The improvement in manufacturing is not significant yet - but we can continue to hope President Trump’s tariffs will pump some life into manufacturing.

According to today’s release of the Beige Book by the 12 Federal Reserve Districts:

Economic activity increased slightly from late May through early July. Five Districts reported slight or modest gains, five had flat activity, and the remaining two Districts noted modest declines in activity.

Economic activity across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts showed a slight improvement compared to the previous report. Nonauto consumer spending softened slightly in most Districts, auto sales saw a modest decline following an earlier surge to avoid tariffs, and tourism, manufacturing, and nonfinancial services displayed mixed or slightly weaker performance, while loan volumes rose slightly and construction slowed due to rising costs. Home sales and nonresidential real estate activity remained mostly stable, but agriculture stayed weak, energy activity dipped slightly, and transportation showed mixed results, with a neutral to slightly pessimistic outlook as only two Districts anticipated growth. Employment edged up very slightly, with cautious hiring attributed to economic and policy uncertainty, improved labor availability, reduced turnover, and increased applications, though skilled trade shortages and reduced foreign-born worker availability were noted, alongside increased automation and AI investments to curb hiring needs; wages grew modestly, with limited layoffs mostly in manufacturing, and hiring or layoff decisions were often deferred pending reduced uncertainty. Prices rose across all Districts, with moderate to modest growth driven by tariff-related input cost pressures, particularly in manufacturing and construction, and rising insurance costs, leading many firms to pass costs to consumers via price hikes or surcharges, though some restrained increases due to price-sensitive customers, compressing margins, with expectations of sustained cost pressures likely pushing consumer prices higher by late summer.

Infographic of the Day from Visual Capitalist:

A U.S. map showing that manufacturing as a percent of state GDP is highest in Indiana.

Statista Graphic of the Day:

Infographic: AI: Are Americans Worrying About the Wrong Jobs? | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

The headlines we are reading:

Weather Outlook for the United States and the World – Continuously Updated

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He responded 'no'...

*TRUMP: POWELL 'TERRIBLE' FED CHAIR

*TRUMP, ASKED IF HE WILL FIRE POWELL: HE HAS BEEN TOO LATE

*TRUMP: POWELL TRIED TO CUT RATES FOR DEMOCRATS

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*TRUMP ON FIRING POWELL: HIGHLY UNLIKELY

*TRUMP DENIES DRAFTING LETTER TO FIRE POWELL

*TRUMP: POWELL A 'KNUCKLEHEAD'

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*TRUMP ON POWELL, FRAUD PROBE: I THINK HE'S GOT SOME PROBLEMS

*TRUMP: POWELL SPENT MORE MONEY THAN EXPECTED

*TRUMP SAYS HE THINKS POWELL IS 'ALREADY' UNDER INVESTIGATION

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Here is the state of trade with these foreign ...

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