03 July 2025 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Sets New Records as Tech and Trade Triumph, but Health Stocks Falter Ahead of Holiday

Gary Hall

and

Steven Hansen

Jul 03, 2025

The Dow closed up 314 points or 0.77%,
NASDAQ closed up 208 points or 1.02%, (New Historic high 20,625, Closed at 20,601)
S&P 500 closed up 52 points or 0.83%, (New Historic high 6,285, Closed at 6,279)
Gold $3,339 down $20.8 or 0.62%,
WTI crude oil settled at $67 down $0.43 or 0.64%,
10-year U.S. Treasury 4.348 up 0.055 points or 1.281%,
USD index 97.16 up $0.38 or 0.40%,
Bitcoin $109,584 up $208 or 0.19%, (24 Hours),
Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -8 to 539 Canada +11 to 151
U.S. Rig Count is down 8 from last week to 539 with oil rigs down 7 to 425, gas rigs down 1 to 108 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 6.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights – Market Summary

U.S. stock markets posted mixed results in a shortened trading session ahead of the Independence Day holiday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closing at fresh record highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged slightly lower. Investor sentiment was buoyed by anticipation of the June jobs report, with expectations of a modest gain in employment and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate. Technology and energy stocks led the gains, driven by strong performances from Tesla—up nearly 6% after beating delivery estimates—and Oracle, while banks rallied on dividend increases following positive Fed stress test results. In contrast, the health care sector lagged, with managed care stocks like Centene plunging over 30% after withdrawing its 2025 outlook. Political developments also influenced markets, as traders watched the progress of President Trump’s major tax and spending bill in Congress and reacted to the newly signed U.S.-Vietnam trade deal, which boosted apparel stocks like Nike. Trading volume was subdued as Wall Street prepared for the early close and the upcoming holiday weekend.

We apologize for the late emailing of our market close yesterday as there were issues at Substack.

Read the June 2025 Economic Forecast: Recession Winds - Is the Glass Half Empty or Half Full

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

In contrast to yesterday’s ADP’s employment report, which showed a loss of 33,000 jobs, the BLS total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June 2025. The unemployment rate changed little at 4.1%. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.0 percent to 4.2% since May 2024. Job gains occurred in state government and health care. The federal government continued to lose jobs, as well as manufacturing, wholesale trade, and temporary help (signs of a weakening economy). The household survey shows a gain in employment of 93,000 versus the headline establishment survey gain of 147,000. Overall, employment is a mixed bag depending on how you want to spin it - but still remains consistent with an expanding economy.

One-Month Employment Change Ranked by Industry: June 2025

May 2025 exports declined 3.9% year-over-year (YoY). Imports were up 3.1% YoY whilst exports were up 3.6% YoY. My position is that trade is beginning to stabilize at a new equalibrium point with the ongoing tariff negotiations - stay tuned.

In the week ending June 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 241,500, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 245,000 to 245,250. Unemployment levels are consistent with an expanding economy.

NFIB’s June jobs report found that 36% (seasonally adjusted) of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in June, up two points from May. Despite a slowing labor market, small business owners remain focused on attracting and hiring talent, with 58% reporting efforts to fill open positions in June, a three-point increase from May, according to Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. However, 86% of those hiring faced challenges, with 50% reporting few or no qualified applicants—25% noted few qualified candidates, and another 25% found none. Compensation pressures persist as owners compete to retain and attract talent. Thirty percent of owners have openings for skilled workers, and 13% for unskilled labor, with job openings most prevalent in construction, manufacturing, and transportation, and least in finance and agriculture. A net 13% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, up one point from May.

Infographic of the Day from Visual Capitalist:

The Fastest Rising Sea Levels in America 🌊

Statista Graphic of the Day:

Infographic: U.S. Agricultural Trade Deficit With India Open Wide | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

The headlines we are reading:

Weather Outlook for the United States and the World – Continuously Updated

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and three- and six-day World weather outlooks, which can be very useful for travelers and understanding World News Events. We also provide continual coverage of world tropical events and special coverage for such events and other special weather situations impacting or likely to impact the United States. To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings, click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code in the upper left corner.

House narrowly passes Trump's megabill in major victory for Republicans

President Donald Trump worked the phones late into the night to help House Republican leadership deliver his second-term policy agenda.

Here's where the jobs are for June 2025 — government sector leads the way

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Dow jumps more than 300 points, S&P 500 sets new record after strong June jobs report: Live updates

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U.S. payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, more than expected

Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase 110,000 in June. The unemployment rate was forecast to rise to 4.3%.

Wall Street heads into the new week bracing for longer trade negotiations as deadlines come up

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Ilya Sutskever becomes CEO of Safe Superintelligence after Meta poached Daniel Gross

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Retailers avoided a worst case scenario in Vietnam. But executives say Trump's trade deal could still hit consumers

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Trump speaks with Putin after U.S. pauses some weapons shipments to Ukraine

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Deputy Head Of Russian Navy Killed In Ukraine Missile Strike

In a rare battlefield development, a very high-ranking general officer for Russia's military has been killed by Ukrainian forces, and it actually happened on Russian soil.

Major General Mikhail Gudkov, deputy commander of the Russian Navy and a brigade leader in the Ukraine war, has been confirmed dead in Russia’s Kursk region, according to a statement Thursday by a Kremlin official.

via Reuters

The news broke when Russian and Ukrainian military Telegram channels reported that Gudkov was killed along with 10 other soldiers in a Ukrainian strike targeting a command post in Korenevo, which lies near the Ukrainian border.

Gudkov is among the highest-ranking Russian military figures killed by Ukrainian forces since the conflict ...

Four Reasons Why This 4th Of July Is Better

Authored by Larry Behrens via RealClearEnergy,

As Americans fire up their grills and head out on road trips, there’s something to celebrate this Independence Day: energy sanity is making a comeback.

This year, there’s a little more freedom on the menu. After years of being shackled by a radical green agenda, 2025 is shaping up to be the year we finally hit the brakes and throw it in reverse.

Here are four reasons why this 4th of July is better than the last:

1. Gas prices are over 31 cents cheaper

According to AAA, the national average for gasoline is more than 31 cents cheaper per gallon than it was last year at this time. That may not sound like much—until you fill up your tank and realize that’s nearly $5 per fill up in a 15-gallon tank. Better yet, gas is now a whopping $1.83 cheaper per gallon than the record highs we saw under Joe Biden ...

CIA Memo: Obama Team 'Excessively Involved' In Fueling Trump-Russia Narrative

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

A newly declassified CIA memo revealed that top officials within the Obama administration deliberately manipulated intelligence to exaggerate Russia’s purported 2016 election interference. This set the stage for the years‑long Trump‑Russia collusion probe.

The review, commissioned by CIA Director John Ratcliffe in May 2025, reassessed the 2016 Intelligence Community Assessment on Russian interference.

It found then‑CIA Director John Brennan, FBI Director James Comey and DNI James Clapper were “excessively involved” in framing the initial Russia narrative.

"Your 'Equity' Is Fake" - Robinhood Faces Backlash After OpenAI Denounces Tokenized Shares

Authored by Kathleen Kinder via CoinLaw.io,

OpenAI has publicly rejected Robinhood’s new “OpenAI tokens,” clarifying they do not represent actual equity in the company.

Key Takeaways

OpenAI disavowed Robinhood’s tokenized equity products, stating they do not grant real ownership in OpenAI.

The tokens offer indirect exposure through a Special Purpose Vehicle, not direct shares.

Elon Musk and others have criticized Robinhood’s efforts as misleading.

The move highlights growing tensions between crypto innovation and traditional private equity rules.

In a clash that is drawing widespread attention across finance and tech circles, OpenAI has forcefully rejected Robinhood’s lat ...

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New Turkish-Libyan Deal Sparks Regional Backlash

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Libya Fixes Leak on Crude Oil Pipeline Linked to Top Refinery

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These stocks got a boost as Starboard Value took a big stake in Tripadvisor

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Clothing stocks got a lift from the U.S.-Vietnam trade deal. But an analyst sees these difficulties ahead.

A UBS analyst says the news “increases the probability more tariff increases for other countries are coming.”

Robinhood missed the S&P 500 again. But Trump’s megabill may be more important for the stock.

President Donald Trump’s megabill could have a big impact on financial-services platform Robinhood Markets.

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