02 July 2025 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Wobble as Weak Jobs Data, Trump’s Tariff Threats, and Senate Tax Bill Stir Volatility

Gary Hall

and

Steven Hansen

Jul 02, 2025

The Dow closed down 11 points or 0.02%,
NASDAQ closed up 190 points or 0.94%,
S&P 500 closed up 29 points or 0.47%, (New Historic high 6,228, Closed at 6,227)
Gold $3,368 up $18.0 or 0.54%,
WTI crude oil settled at $67 up $1.78 or 2.70%,
10-year U.S. Treasury 4.287 up 0.038 points or 0.894%,
USD index 96.75 down $0.07 or 0.07%,
Bitcoin $109,683 up $4,278 or 3.90%, (24 Hours),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights – Market Summary

Stock markets on July 2, 2025, were shaped by a mix of economic and political developments, with the S&P 500 reaching an intraday record before retreating as investors digested unexpectedly weak U.S. private payrolls data and ongoing uncertainty around President Trump's looming tariff deadline and mega tax-and-spending bill. The disappointing ADP employment report heightened concerns about the labor market, prompting a rise in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut later in July. Technology stocks were volatile, with Apple gaining but broader tech names like Nvidia and Microsoft slipping, while health insurers tumbled after Centene withdrew its earnings forecast. Major banks saw modest gains after boosting dividends following positive Fed stress test results. Globally, Asian markets slipped and the U.S. dollar hovered near multi-year lows as investors assessed the likelihood of imminent U.S. rate cuts and the outcome of critical trade negotiations. Meanwhile, President Trump's tax-and-spending bill passed the Senate by a razor-thin margin, adding to fiscal uncertainty as it heads to the House. Overall, markets reflected caution amid mixed economic signals, sector rotation, and heightened policy risks.

Read the June 2025 Economic Forecast: Recession Winds - Is the Glass Half Empty or Half Full

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

In July 2025, the U.S. housing market is characterized by sluggish price growth and subdued home-buying activity, with year-over-year price growth dropping to 1.8% in May 2025, the slowest since 2012. While affordable Midwestern markets like Indianapolis and Knoxville, along with areas near New York, show stronger seasonal gains, states like Illinois, Rhode Island, and New Jersey lead with robust year-over-year growth, contrasting with negative price growth in Florida, Texas, Hawaii, and Washington D.C. Chief Economist Selma Hepp notes that rising inventory, high mortgage rates, and affordability concerns are dampening demand, particularly in overvalued Southern and Desert West markets, where cumulative price increases since 2020 far exceed the national average. Escalating non-fixed costs like property taxes and insurance, which have surged 70% since 2020, are further pressuring markets like Cape Coral, FL, contributing to a 19% share of markets with declining prices, the highest since 2012, signaling potential affordability improvements as real home prices fall below inflation rates.

Construction spending during May 2025 was down 3.5% year-over-year (YoY). Components private construction was down 5.4% YoY whilst public construction was up 3.3% YoY. Unfortunately, construction went negative in December 2024 and remains on a fairly negative trend line.

The number of job openings (JOLTS) was little changed at 7.8 million in May 2025. JOLTS historically correlates to employment growth - so it is suggesting that the BLS employment report coming tomorrow will show little change in employment growth from what we have seen so far this year.

In June, the Manufacturing PMI® rose to 49%, a slight 0.5-percentage point increase from May’s 48.5%. A PMI® above 42.3% typically signals economic growth over time. The New Orders Index continued its five-month contraction, dropping to 46.4%, down 1.2 percentage points from May, whereas the Production Index rebounded to expansion territory at 50.3%, a significant 4.9-percentage point rise from May. The Backlog of Orders Index fell to 44.3 percent, a 2.8-percentage point decline from May. Manufacturing in the U.S. remains soft - and has been sickly for years.

In June 2025, private employers cut 33,000 jobs, with the most significant losses in professional and business services, and education and health services, though leisure and hospitality, and manufacturing sectors saw gains, according to Nela Richardson, Chief Economist at ADP. Despite rare layoffs, a cautious approach to hiring and reluctance to replace departing workers drove the job losses, but the slowdown in hiring has not yet impacted pay growth. Although ADP’s employment report has not been a good predictor of the BLS employment report which will be released tomorrow - I wonder if this time we might see a poor BLS report.

In June 2025, U.S.-based employers announced 47,999 job cuts, a 49% decrease from May’s 93,816 and a 2% drop from the 48,786 cuts in June 2024, according to a report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Despite the monthly decline, the second quarter of 2025 saw 247,256 job cuts, the highest Q2 total since 1,238,364 in 2020, marking a 39% increase from the 177,391 cuts in Q2 2024, though down 50% from the 497,052 cuts in Q1 2025.

Infographic of the Day from Visual Capitalist:

A bar chart of DOGE's proposed spending cuts vs. the proposed US federal spending in 2025

Statista Graphic of the Day:

Infographic: The 'Big Beautiful Bill' Faces Broad Opposition | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

The headlines we are reading:

Weather Outlook for the United States and the World – Continuously Updated

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and three- and six-day World weather outlooks, which can be very useful for travelers and understanding World News Events. We also provide continual coverage of world tropical events and special coverage for such events and other special weather situations impacting or likely to impact the United States. To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings, click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code in the upper left corner.

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Wisconsin Supreme Court Votes 4–3 To Invalidate State Abortion Law

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The Wisconsin Supreme Court voted 4–3 on July 2 to strike down the state’s 176-year-old almost-total ban on abortion.

Justice Rebecca Frank Dallet wrote the majority opinion.

“We conclude that comprehensive legislation enacted over the last 50 years regulating in detail the ‘who, what, where, when, and how’ of abortion so thoroughly covers the entire subject of abortion that it was meant as a substitute for the 19th century near-total ban on abortion,” Dallet wrote.

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Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

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Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington on June 24, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

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The National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program w ...

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